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(Includes Hard Copy, CD-ROM and Immediate Download) Based upon a Full Service Nail Salon, featuring manicure and pedicure stations, packages and waxing will edit to cover any scenario. The Industry Until recently it used to be that the very wealthy got their nails done and the rest of us did not. Today, free-standing Nail Salons dot the commercial blocks and strip malls of cities throughout the USA. Needless to say this is a very competitive and mature Industry with more than 59,000 Nail Salons listed throughout the U.S. as of December 2009. After two years of less than 2% growth following 911 and the recession that followed, the Industry showed solid signs of recovery posting a gain of 4.7% in 2004 as real disposable income peaked and the Economic recovery orchestrated by the Federal Reserve kicked in. In 2005 however higher energy prices, interest rates and natural disasters including hurricane Katrina dug into real disposable income. Higher interest rates reduce borrowing by consumers; higher energy prices reduce the real (inflation adjusted) income of households; and the decline in the growth of housing prices slows the rise in household wealth and with the Credit crises and the current recession the Industry has been weathering the storm. Contractions within any Industry are not all bad in fact they can be very profitable for operators with an established clientele or new operators who have the understanding and the cash available to weather the storm. Already lower numbers of new nail salons are coming into the market and the Economy will shake the weakest operators out as leaving a much more profitable environment for operators who have survived. The Industry is tied directly to the health of the U.S. Economy and consumer disposable income. The CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will have lasted until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II they anticipate that real GDP will have dropped by 2.2 percent in calendar year 2009, a steep decline. Severe economic downturns often sow the seeds of robust recoveries. During a slump in economic activity, consumers defer purchases, especially for housing and durable goods, and businesses postpone capital spending and try to cut inventories. Once demand in the economy picks up, the disparity between the desired and actual stocks of capital assets and consumer durable goods widens quickly, and spending by consumers and businesses can accelerate rapidly. Although CBO expects that the current recovery will be spurred by that dynamic, in all likelihood, the recovery will also be dampened by a number of factors. Those factors include the continuing fragility of some financial markets and institutions; declining support from fiscal policy as the effects of ARRA wane and tax rates increase because of the scheduled expiration of key tax provisions; and slow wage and employment growth, as well as a large excess of vacant houses.
Source: Congressional Budget Office Economic Projections and revisions. In CBO’s forecast, real GDP increases by 2.1 percent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010 and by 2.4 percent in 2011. Given CBO’s estimate of growth in potential output, those GDP growth rates will narrow the difference between actual output and potential output (the output gap) only slightly. Growth of real GDP will accelerate after 2011, spurred by stronger business investment and residential construction.
Source: Congressional Budget Office Economic Projections and revisions. The rebound in GDP and will also affect real disposable income growth which is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2010 after .50% growth in 2009. For 2012 through 2014, CBO projects that real GDP will increase by an average of 4.4 percent per year, which would close the output gap completely by the end of 2014. Even though economic activity began to increase again during the second half of 2009, the unemployment rate continued to rise, finishing the year at 10.0 percent. Hiring usually lags behind output during the initial stages of a recovery because firms tend to increase output first by boosting productivity and by raising the number of hours that existing employees work; adding employees tends to occur later. CBO expects that the unemployment rate will average slightly above 10 percent in the first half of 2010 and then turn downward in the second half of the year. As the economy expands further, the rate of unemployment is projected to continue declining until, in 2016, it reaches 5 percent, which is equal to CBO’s estimate of the rate of unemployment consistent with the usual rate of job turnover in U.S. labor markets. Reflecting the large amount of slack in the economy, inflation will decrease further from its already low level in 2009, CBO forecasts. The core price index for personal consumption expenditures (that is, the PCE price index excluding the prices of food and energy) will rise by about 1 percent (on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) in 2010 and by 0.9 percent in 2011. The overall PCE price index will rise by 1.4 percent in 2010 and 1.1 percent in 2011. For operators just getting started this may be the best time within the business cycle to plan and open your new facility understanding that with interest rates still at all time low levels and marginal operators going out of business you will have accounted for the marginal efficiencies necessary to not only survive against the competition but to thrive as we cycle once again into economic expansion. Growth in 2010
According to Nails Magazine more than 87% of Salons purchase their supplies from professional Beauty stores and there is none bigger than Sally Beauty Company, the world's #1 professional beauty supply distributor, owned by Alberto-Culver but spun off to become it’s own publicly traded Company in 2009. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution and retail of professional beauty supplies. As of December 30, 2009, it operated 2,898 company-operated retail stores and supplied 25 franchised stores. The Beauty Systems Group segment distributes beauty supplies directly to salons and salon professionals through its sales force and professional-only stores. If the Company is any indication of a better 2010 then the Industry is off to a very good start. The Company said its sales in the first quarter surpassed $700 million for the first time in the company’s history posting a profit of $26.1 million, or 14 cents per share, on revenue of $704.8 million. That is up from a profit of $16 million, or 9 cents per share, on revenue of $645.5 million. Sally Beauty credits its surge in profit on a positive impact from the foreign currency exchange rate and higher same-store sales—which includes all stores open for 12 months or more. The company said going into 2010, it plans to continue growing the business through acquisitions and organic store openings. Current corporate Analyst expectations are for solid growth of over 8% in 2010. For operators just getting started this may be the best time within the business cycle to plan and open your new facility understanding that with interest rates still at all time low levels and marginal operators going out of business you will have accounted for the marginal efficiencies necessary to not only survive against the competition but to thrive as we cycle once again into economic expansion.
The Complete plan consists of hard copy and software files of the following :
Five Year Forecast Matrix (Spreadsheet File); type in your assumptions and all of the following statements are immediately calculated....42 pages; Years 1-5 Month to Month Operating Budgets Years 1-5 Month to Month Income Statements Years 1-5 Month to Month Balance Sheets Years 1-5 Month to Month Cash Flow Analysis Years 1-5 Financial Ratio Analysis Years 1-5 Summary Statements Years 1-5 Month to Month Break Even Analysis Auto Generated Use of Proceeds Statement Starting with the, "before you sit down checklist , you will gather your information together to edit on your word processor. Pull up the Five Year "Big Picture" Nail Salon Financials Excel Work Book and insert the prices for your Nail services, operating expenses and fixed asset purchases that you need to open your doors. Now study your first year Cash Flow Analysis and your year one by month Break Even Analysis to answer the question of how much money you are going to need to get started and stay operational. All five years of financial statements are calculated and ready for printing and insertion into your plan. Once finished , print up your plan and simply place it into the three ring binder indexing it according to the pre-labeled index, included. The cost
of the above information would most likely run between $3,000.00
$5,000.00 if you were to contract a CPA/Business Analyst to write
your plan and would probably not include all the information that
QuickPlan™ offers.
More Detailed Outline; The following is a complete detailed outline of QuickPlan ®NailSalon2010;Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis & Financial Ratio Analysis Break Even Analysis Auto Generated Use of Proceeds Auto Generated Summary Charts Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis & Financial Ratio Analysis Break Even Analysis Auto Generated Use of Proceeds Auto Generated Summary Charts Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis & Financial Ratio Analysis Break Even Analysis Auto Generated Use of Proceeds Auto Generated Summary Charts Operating Budgets Income Statements Balance Sheets Cash Flow Analysis Hard copy with professionally printed indexes covering supporting documents for your plan: Advertising Samples Articles of Incorporation Awards Build-out Estimates Collateral Statement Competition Company Financials Demographics Employee Manuals Equipment Estimates Floor Plan Health Department Industry Analysis Insurance Internet Inventory Licenses and Permits Lease Agreement Loan Application Menu Management Resumes Operations Manual Real-Estate Staff Schedule Trade References Vendors Personal Information Make your first impression count and concentrate on getting your Nail Salon open!
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